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Prediction for CME (2013-05-22T13:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-05-22T13:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/306/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-05-24T17:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -55
Dst min. time: 2013-05-25T08:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-05-23T23:26Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Prediction Method: STOA
Prediction Method Note:

On May 22, 2013, at 2:45 PM, Murray Dryer wrote:
Sagamore Hill reported (NOAA Edited Events) a metric Type II radio drift, 54-25 MHz with an estimated coronal shock speed, Vs = 1962 km/s. Mike Kaiser reported intense Type II drifts (continuation of same shock?) from 6 - 0.3 Mhz (this writer's interpretation) from both STEREO A&B from this LDE solar flare. No CME information available at this time. Using Sag Hill's Vs estimate, STOA predicts shock arrrival at Earth (far eastern flank) at 2326 UT +/-10hr, 23 May 2013.
 
Caveat: STOA's 2D empirical/theory-based model does not consider preexisting events or ambient solar wind plasma or IMF variability. See ENLIL or 3DMHD (NOAA/SWPC or NRL sites) for ensemble predictions.
 
Murray Dryer

Lead Time: 47.00 hour(s)
Difference: 18.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-05-22T18:35Z

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